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The Shrinking Half-Life of AI Narratives, The Prediction Market Boom, and $83M Raised
Xan Wood
December 08, 2025
Narratives in the World of AI - The Shrinking Narrative Half Life
It seems that AI companies are growing faster and faster and they are! But something I have noticed recently is that the half-life of a narrative seems to be shrinking exponentially. You see this across the ecosystem. One minute it’s “Google is dead” (WSJ, May 10th) and OpenAI is going to take over the world; the next it’s “Google is set to win” and it’s code red (WSJ, Dec 2nd) for OpenAI and Google is back on top.
A prime example of this is Oracle (thanks Gemini Nano Banana for the below!). They announced a $300B deal with OpenAI, the stock jumped from $225 to $328 (up 45%), and just 60 days later the stock is lower than it was before. I see this constantly in this new era.
What’s the result? CEOs and founders are spending much more time trying to control the narrative — it seems to be a full-time job for leaders now, like the Perplexity CEO I previously mentioned talking up buying Chrome and even the recent announcement of Christiano Ronaldo investing. I don’t have the data, but I suspect that if you were to track it, AI founders are spending significantly more time on podcasts, panels, and media compared to previous tech waves. Recently, people thought Microsoft was falling behind, and cue Satya, the CEO, popping up across podcasts to give his view of the world.
It might be a niche reference, but in the words of Gilderoy Lockhart to Harry Potter - Fame is a Fickle Friend Harry. Celebrity is as Celebrity Does
Polymarket / Kalshi the truth engine?
Something that is fascinating is the rapid evolution of prediction markets, and the valuation of these companies has gone stratospheric. Polymarket was looking to be valued at $12-15B, and Kalshi at $11B. It is remarkable that ICE, the owner of the NYSE, invested $2B into Polymarket. This is a company that has only just become legally operational in the US, in a market (prediction markets, or more specifically political event contracts) that wasn’t legal in the US just two years ago and is still not fully legalized. Amazing.
Fun story: There is even a fight on Polymarket about a $59M betting market on the exact US launch date.
What is even more interesting to me is that the wisdom of the crowd seems pretty good at predicting the future before it happens. Below are the odds of the Fed cutting rates (we will find out this week!). It feels like a major shift and it also underlines that somebody always knows.... There are some big implications here for certain parts of the market, and it seems like this entire sector is just going to explode.
Where are all my pals going!?
It might be that I haven’t been in venture capital long enough, but I’ve noticed a concerning trend recently. A lot of the people I know are leaving. Where are they going? It seems like it’s mainly to hot AI companies, typically to be a Chief of Staff, lead Partnerships, or work in GTM. I’m seeing this across all rungs of venture capital, from junior to senior roles. I don’t have any data on this, so it’s just a feeling, but a tell-tale sign is when you get a bounce-back email and the person hasn’t sent around a note saying they’re excited to continue working with you. After all, who needs a venture friend when they’re at a hot new AI company 😞
I sort of understand why, and I do advise people that the best risk-reward right now is at a fast-scaling Series B or Series C AI startup. This is unless you love spending time searching for people and companies building the future, which I am a glutton for.
RIP Claude
I was lucky enough to see Claude recently, so it was sad to hear of his passing. He was an Albino Alligator at the Academy of Fine Arts and also the name behind Anthropic's Claude AI model. I hope this is not an omen for Anthropic's potential IPO.
Summary by the #️⃣ & 💰:
15 Berkeley-founded companies funded
$83M of capital raised from the 24th Nov to 30th Nov
💡 Got any ideas or feedback on how to improve this weekly digest? Just hit reply.
Acquisition
🐻 Scott Woody, CEO & Founder. BS Physics Article
Closed Rounds
🛡️ AnChain.AI. Undisclosed 🇺🇲 Blockchain security intelligence platform. 💰 Fin Capital, Susquehanna International Group
🐻 Victor Fang, CEO & Chairman. Entrepreneurship Article
🏥 Belong Health Undisclosed 🇺🇲 Medicare Advantage for dual-eligibles. 💰 Maverick Ventures, New Enterprise Associates
🐻 Patrick Foley, Co-Founder & CEO. Haas MBA
🏨 Blue Pin. Undisclosed 🇭🇰 Hotel automation and positioning. 💰 TASMU Accelerator, Wings Capital Ventures
🐻 Eric Cheok, Co-Founder & Chairman. BS Applied Maths
🐻 Roy Ng, CEO & Founder. BS Political Science
🚛 Mudflap. Undisclosed 🇺🇲 Fuel discounts for truckers. 💰 500 Global, NFX, QED
🐻 Sanjay Desai, Co-Founder & CEO. BA
🧬 Sift Biosciences. Undisclosed 🇺🇲 Cancer and autoimmune immunomodulators. 💰 California Life Sciences, Plug and Play
🐻 Clare Lou, CEO & Founder. PhD & BS Microbiology
🤖 Tensr. Undisclosed 🇺🇲 Autonomous robotic factory platform. 💰 Symphony Ventures, Y Combinator
🐻 Eric Berndt, Co-Founder & CEO. MS & BS EECS Article
🖥️ Simular. $21.5M Series A 🇺🇲 AI agent for digital workflows. 💰 Basis Set Ventures, Felicis, South Park Commons
🐻 Jiachen Yang, Co-Founder. BS EECS Article
🔐 Multifactor. $15.0M Seed 🇺🇲 Secure authentication without passwords. 💰 Flex Capital, Liquid 2 Ventures, Pioneer Fund
🐻 Vivek Nair, Co-Founder. PhD CS Article
💧 Raindrop. $15.0M Seed 🇺🇲 Analytics platform for AI products. 💰 Figma Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Scribble Ventures
🐻 Alexis Gauba, Co-Founder. BS EECS Article
🩻 InkSpace Imaging. $10.0M S🇺🇲 Pediatric MRI body coils. 💰 Berkeley SkyDeck, Taihill Venture
🐻 Joseph Corea, Founder & Principal Eng. PhD EECS
👗 Rubi. $7.5M Early Stage VC 🇺🇲 Carbon-negative textile materials. 💰 Incite Ventures, Kayak Ventures, Necessary Ventures
🐻 Neeka Mashouf, Co-Founder & CEO. BS Materials Science
🚗 Autolane. $7.4M Early Stage VC 🇺🇲 Autonomous vehicle errand delivery. 💰 Draper Associates, Feld Ventures, Redstick Ventures
🌿 Carba. $6.0M Early Stage VC 🇺🇲 Biomass carbon removal technology. 💰 Demos Capital, Groove Capital, Incite Ventures
🐻 Andrew Jones, CEO & Founder. Phd Chemical Eng Article
🦾 Anvil Robotics. $1.0M Seed Round 🇺🇲 Modular robotic hardware platform. 💰 Matter Venture Partners
🐻 Haomiao Huang, Co-Founder & Board Member. Post Doc CS Article
Date Built By Berkeley Started | Companies Funded | Total Raised ($M) |
7/8/24 | 592 | 89,066 |
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